We calculate the excess storage profit over the FFA time charter basis which can be taken to indicate whether the value of storage trade exceeds the alternative trading strategy in the absence of basis risk. Contango, also sometimes called forwardation, is a situation where the futures price (or forward price) of a commodity is higher than the spot price of the contract today. Using this spreadsheet I calculated the short ( SPVXSTR ) and medium term ( SPVXMTR ) rolling indexes that underlie the various volatility Exchange Traded Products. Project B that costs $500 million is…. Don't make the same mistakes I did which included attempting to trade rather than invest , not considering investment e xpense s and not understanding contango. The "official" D/R All-Seasons Portfolio is mediocre at best, hence the reason for this thread. storage costs. Then, you will need to calculate whatever version of "contango" you prefer. These free Khan Academy courses gives you free access to learning materials from Khan Academy. Section 2: Regress the daily returns of VXX with VXZ to calculate the hedge ratio. This trading system is based on Tony Cooper's volatility trading strategy #3, which is to simply buy XIV when the VIX futures are in contango and buy VXX when the VIX futures contracts are in backwardation. If we calculate a curve with constant dollars (all prices expressed as of today), we get the following curve: The inflation-adjusted curve uses an inflation rate equal to 3% to discount all prices down to today. (If you already have an account, login at the top of the page) futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. gains should be the XIV gain for the day AFTER the first contango value. Topic Tagged With: arbitrage argument , backwardation , consumption assets , contango , convenience yield , cost-of-carry model , forward foreign exchange rate , forwards , futures , futures contracts , income , interest rate parity. n The forward price for immediate delivery is the spot price. I've given a sample for DateTime which will be unique and will work for a pretty wide range of values but it gives a 64 bit value. Forward pricing was in steep contango as the market struggled to price in the supply surge from the Saudi/Russia price war while demand fell off a cliff. Contango usually occurs when an asset price is expected to rise over time. Contango is an elegant, simple and clean design, emphasis on content. Table 1: Source Contango MicroCap Limited In addition, an LIC trading at a discount provides the same upside a geared portfolio can. However, there are things you need to know before trading VIX futures. Risk Disclosure. CIE's stated objective is to pay quarterly dividends that provide investors with an attractive and sustainable income stream that is franked to the maximum possible extent. Then you add both and sell it at a price of $90 per barrel. dividing the "2nd mth" column by the "1st mth" column, subtracting 1, and then multiplying by 100. Assume that the two-year bond pays a coupon of 8 per cent and is priced at 95. Section 3: Generate the backwardation / contango signal. Necessary But Not Sufficient Conditions: A Score > 90%; B Score > 80%; C Score > 70%; D Score > 60%. The zero line is the spot price on the chart, so a positive value means Futures are trading at a premium (or in Contango). The best investment analysis of the VIX futures market and related exchange traded products. 享vip专享文档下载特权; 赠共享文档下载特权; 100w优质文档免费下载; 赠百度阅读vip精品版; 立即开通. 11% per year over past 5 years. Has less than 1 year of cash runway. is an independent oil and natural gas company, which engages in the exploration, development, production, and acquisition of crude oil and natural gas properties. 8 Markets In Contango And Backwardation. Forward Curve with Prices Increasing, Contango to backwardation. com – NPE May 20 '11 at 16:39. For example, if the price of a crude oil contract today is $100 per barrel, but the price for delivery in six months is $110 per barrel, that market would be in contango. That being said, if oil shoots up to $40 before then, I guess you'll be fine. Hey guys, I've never traded oil and I am really unsure how to do it. gains should be the XIV gain for the day AFTER the first contango value. If we calculate a curve with constant dollars (all prices expressed as of today), we get the following curve: The inflation-adjusted curve uses an inflation rate equal to 3% to discount all prices down to today. As time passes, VIX futures contracts slowly converge towards the VIX Index. 7 million was a sharp improvement over the 2018 number of -$0. Contango means upward sloping; backwardation. Salary Research. Calculate the YTM of a coupon bond which pays interest Rs. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is used to calculate the required rate of return for any risky asset. In the case of ETFs like the United States Oil Fund (USO) here is. This leverage is made possible by the relatively low margin (approximately 29. Beston Global Food Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of food and beverage products in Australia and internationally. Yet the sheer profitability raises. 31 per barrel at 1004 GMT, a level not seen since January 2009. For oil, the price of futures is usually calculated using the present day price of oil (spot price) and the expense incurred in storing it. Pingback: Why using the VXX pricing model along with available vix/futures data is worthwhile? | The Intelligent Investor Blog. Louisiana Light. , Melbourne, has plugged Marina-1 wildcat in the Tumbes basin offshore Peru after finding only minor gas shows. How to calculate contango keyword after analyzing the system lists the list of keywords related and the list of websites with related content, in addition you can see which keywords most interested customers on the this website. Contango and Backwardation are the terms used to define the price of the futures curve for a commodity. Delegates will learn how to negotiate and cost deals, calculate profitability, charter a ship through a broker, and examine the legal and operational aspects of trading. Only way to bank contango is to buy spot and sell forward, which involves taking delivery and waiting-out the time to deliver against the short forward/futures. The FPY for process B is (80-0)/90 = 80/90 =. Dollar rally? It's a subliminal way of asking for a genie or a crystal ball, and the futures market equivalent of asking your neighbor how high Facebook or Amazon's stock. The prompt intermonth spread was in a contango of 77 cents on Tuesday, the steepest in more than three years. Contango can be interpreted in the way that the market expects the VIX index to increase from its current level going forward. Despite a series of bullish events – the killing of Qasem Soleimani by the US, Iran’s retaliation attack on US troops in Iraq, the shutdown of almost the entire Libyan production and the US’ tightening the screws on Venezuela by sanctioning Rosneft and potentially refusing to renew waivers to US companies stating in April - oil prices. com, and one of the many useful metrics we're looking for there is the level of M1:M2 VIX futures contango/backwardation. Table 1: Information of the firms Unlevered firmLevered firmEBIT10,00010,000Interest03,200Taxable income10,0006,800Tax (tax rate: 34%)3,4002,312Net income6,6004,488CFFA0-3,200 Assuming that cost of debt =8%. The options used to calculate VIX are put and call options on the S&P 500. 5 Nov, 2019, 07. Futures contracts give investors the right to claim delivery of a certain commodity at a. stackexchange. However, if an arrangement does not meet a safe harbor then such an arrangement may be at risk of violating the Anti-Kickback Statute. Backwardation is incredibly uncommon in the VIX futures curve. Backwardation starts when the cost of carry - i. Adjusting for IFRS 16 adoption, we calculate that adjusted EBITDA was $24. A market in contango will need to see a price increase in the underlying just for the futures contract to remain flat. In today's podcast, I want to slowly walk through the concept of contango and backwardation while offering a couple different examples to show you how it works in real life and how we might be able to use the awareness of futures pricing as part of an options strategy in our portfolio. When drawing a path on a map (for instance, the directions from point A to point B) it is important to consider the limitations of the device you're drawing the path on. Contango Oil & Gas Company (MCF) - AMEX Next Earnings Date: Estimated on May 7, 2020. In fact, contango is a situation of a stable market when supply completely satisfied demand and there are even significant reserves of one or another commodity. NET framework. But there’s a whole other class of investors, called shorts, who do just the opposite. This is the. 16 to the futures contracts 12 months ahead. Nominal Interest Rate Decomposition Ri = rri +iei Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate + Inflation Rate. Thus, in a contango, the front month futures contracts are usually higher than the distant months. The following table summarizes Contango’s total proved reserves as of December 31, 2015 (1):. Options Calculator. iv Abstract The study assesses the effect of oil prices on maritime freight rates for containerized goods and two particular commodities, iron ore and crude oil. What is contango? When the current price of a commodity, such as oil, is lower than prices for delivery in the future, the market structure in industry jargon is known as "contango". CfDs incentivise investment in renewable energy by providing. ) For both scenarios, consider full hedging and a 50% hedge strategy. Contango: A scenario when the futures price is above the spot price. Select Ounce, Gram or Kilogram for the weight. This is a basic fact about futures trading and the storage of commodities. backwardation than in contango • Spot and forward prices should be equally volatile when the market is at full carry because storage connects the prices • Spot prices should be more volatile than forward prices when the market is in backwardation because there is more flexibility to adjust quantity over a longer period of time, and. This situation usually arises when a commodity that normally experiences contango faces a positive demand or negative supply shock. 4 Calculate a forward price for a bond, given its spot clean price and accrued interest, the accrued interest for the forward period, and the repo rate 1. Calculate the possible volume of your transaction, see what the swap is and how you can break even, analyse the best moment to enter the trade. The forward curve is just a prediction of what the future delivery of commodities will be. Investors mustn't confuse risky esoteric ETFs with mainstream. Thanks for contributing an answer to Mathematica Stack Exchange! Please be sure to answer the question. S Treasury bond (T-bond). we can now calculate the annualized percentage. Get detailed information about the BetaPro Crude Oil 2x Daily Bull ETF including Price, Charts, Technical Analysis, Historical data, BetaPro Crude Oil 2x Daily Bull Reports and more. You'll also learn about some of the most common Gold products and how to calculate the price you can reasonably expect to get. Performance returns, including 1-month Return/Return Since Inception/1-year returns indicates the performance of this particular motif over that stated period of time as of the date provided. Contango distributed all of the Company’s common stock to Contango’s stockholders of record as of October 15, 2010, promptly after the effective date of the Company’s Registration Statement Form 10 on the basis of one share of common stock for each ten (10) shares of Contango’s common stock then outstanding. It is interesting to point out that there is a clear relationship between the spot price of an underlying financial instrument and the expected spot price at expiry. current('v1','Settle')) #log. Trading shall cease at the end of the designated settlement period on the last Business Day of the second month preceding the relevant contract month (e. Easter falls on the first Sunday following the Paschal Full Moon, the full moon on or after 21 March, taken to be the date of the vernal equinox. Futures Commentary. If contango and -(time spread) > marginal storage cost: Long 1st month, short 2nd month Hold both futures contracts till expiry After expiry 1st month: collect and store product After expiry 2nd month: deliver product Profit = -(time spread) - storage costs Storage costs: • Transportation costs (transport product to tank terminal). gains: Numeric vector of gains for XIV. We have two main problems to overcome; Which contract to base our time series analysis on and how to link contracts together. All content is posted anonymously by employees working at Contango IT. The VXX calculation is derived from the two nearest months of VIX futures. For a description of how we calculate MM GOFO™ from over-the-counter spot prices and Comex gold futures, see About Monetary Metals’ Gold & Silver Forward Offered Rates. Should be same length as contango and date-shifted one value to the right. 3) Contango with increasing future prices will make the VXX fall or go up depending on the strength but contango will act as a headwind (because the number of vix futures is decreasing) pushing the VXX price down. Commodity Prices Historical Data. The Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Index (BCOMRS or "Roll Select") is a dynamic version of the Bloomberg Commodity Index ("BCOM") that aims to mitigate the effects of contango market structure on index performance. Let us make believe you are Company A and you have 10,000 ounces of gold deposited by your customers. "The Dubai spreads have strengthened. Then you add both and sell it at a price of $90 per barrel. 19 per basic and diluted share, compared to a net loss of $81. Bertrand & the NT Forum, Picking up on this thread, I would imagine this contango / backwardation calculation (i. Sometimes you might see a severe Contango maybe with something that is consumable. However the raw value alone may be misleading. The Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme is the government’s main mechanism for supporting low-carbon electricity generation. 5 million and employs a staff of approximately 1 to 4. Calculate_VIX_RollDown. Calculate the value of the levered firm based on: Assuming that there is an unlevered firm and a levered firm. Core Essentials. You amplify a small region of this mRNA with oligos and a fluorescent probe (if working with Taqman). Assume that the two-year bond pays a coupon of 8 per cent and is priced at 95. Learn how to trade volatility ETPs for profit. Table 1: Information of the firms Unlevered firmLevered firmEBIT10,00010,000Interest03,200Taxable income10,0006,800Tax (tax rate: 34%)3,4002,312Net income6,6004,488CFFA0-3,200 Assuming that cost of debt =8%. Regulation Crowdfunding offerings are conducted by EF Funding Portal, LLC, a registered funding portal and member of FINRA. However, we do give a bit of weight to Contango # as that influences the daily rebalancing of the ETF last_ratio =. It's making money, which is a very positive sign. Dollar rally? It's a subliminal way of asking for a genie or a crystal ball, and the futures market equivalent of asking your neighbor how high Facebook or Amazon's stock. Assuming that interest rates are 10% per annum for all maturities, calculate the futures price of silver for delivery in 9 months. This is important to markets like oil because market structure reflects current and future demand prospects. we can now calculate the annualized percentage. Current estimates show this company has an annual revenue of $1 to 2. The first thing you're going to learn is how to calculate pivot point levels. sınıfı 23 kişi, öğretmeni sadece ders değil, sosyal yönden de gelişmeleri için uğraşıyor. Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience. Cboe Global Markets. Performance is quoted for informational purposes only, however, there is no guarantee those returns will continue. Cboe VIX futures can be used to gain exposure to changes in S&P 500 implied volatility. Stock Futures , Generally trade at premium to spot prices of the underlying. A market in contango will need to see a price increase in the underlying just for the futures contract to remain flat. The mineral futures markets are also dominated by both backwardation and contango. Nominal Interest Rate Decomposition Ri = rri +iei Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate + Inflation Rate. The second factor is the daily rebalancing of the two VIX futures that are utilized to calculate the value of VXX. – Calculate Refinery margins and adjust run rates accordingly – Optimise your Refinery, switch Crudes as prices change 11. call deposit account. Natural Gas Contango Swells As Summer/Winter Trades Get Crowded. View the latest Chesapeake Gold Corp. Contango Figure 3. However, there are things you need to know before trading VIX futures. Risk Disclosure. A Detailed Analysis of VXX’s Cost of Contango A few years ago I developed a consolidated spreadsheet to organize historic VIX futures data from the CBOE into a single spreadsheet. Pricing Futures and Forwards by Peter Ritchken 2 Peter Ritchken Forwards and Futures Prices 3 Forward Curves n Forward Prices are linked to Current Spot prices. Our records show it was established in 2010 and incorporated in Idaho. Net loss for the three months ended September 30, 2019 was $7. Get instant access to a free live streaming chart of the BetaPro Crude Oil 2x Daily Bull ETF. FYI: the math is very basic. This trading system is based on Tony Cooper's volatility trading strategy #3, which is to simply buy XIV when the VIX futures are in contango and buy VXX when the VIX futures contracts are in backwardation. April 2020 will arguably go down in history as the most unforgettable month commodity markets have witnessed to date. In a contango situation, arbitrageurs or speculators, are "willing to pay more [now] for a commodity [to be received] at some point in the future than the actual expected. I typically define contango as what percent higher the second-month VIX futures are acompared to the first-month futures, i. There are 3 hypotheses to explain how the price of futures contracts converge to the expected spot price over their term: expectations hypothesis, normal backwardation, and contango. You can see how the price for March futures is higher than the January contract month, indicating that there is an increasing demand for soybeans and also. 00 was invested at the rate we calculated for the one-year bond (10 per cent), it would accumulate £104. 10/b contango, at plus $3. iv Abstract The study assesses the effect of oil prices on maritime freight rates for containerized goods and two particular commodities, iron ore and crude oil. May 2021 future) is a massive $17. 67, with a volume of 20,597 shares traded. Neste reference margin Pricing basis at Porvoo and Naantali refineries Feed structure comparable to Neste Product yields comparable to Neste Similar cost structure vs. With VIX front month and second month futures settling at 25. 50 or higher Once again, please note that:. I typically define contango as what percent higher the second-month VIX futures are acompared to the first-month futures, i. Cost of carry Out-of-pocket costs incurred while an investor has an investment position. I hope by now, you understand that no matter you invest in unit trusts, ETFs or stocks, your situation is the same. Full Article » 4 oil price predictions for 2019 By Steve Austin, 2019/01/07. light sweet futures contract (WTI), where the contango has narrowed but shows no sign of disappearing yet. This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC. Brenda has 6 jobs listed on their profile. This theme is powered with custom menu, custom background, custom header, sidebar widget, featured image, theme options, nice typography and built-in pagination features. Gold contango creates arbitrage opportunities in this particular metal. Discuss the importance of roll returns in explaining the long-run cross-sectional variation of commodity futures returns and the implication for investors. Neste total refining margin Key differences between Neste reference margin and Neste total refining margin Actual product yield structure and feedstocks Actual product sales distribution, pice differentials and timing Actual. Default values are 0% or less (backwardation) indicates green. Bertrand & the NT Forum, Picking up on this thread, I would imagine this contango / backwardation calculation (i. 2 NAV total returns for the fund are used to calculate Growth of $10,000. If the later prices are lower, the curve is said to be in "backwardation". Each expiration has the current options trading volume listed to the right side of the table. The Piotroski F-Score, as it is known, is a 9-point discrete score, where 9 is the best, that ranks companies based on a number of financial factors. In a contango market, the discount in forward prices relative to the spot price represents a positive yield for the commodity consumer. He said this is important because unlike refining cracks, in which refiners see a margin capture, the contango benefit is fully reflected in refining gross margins. In this, prices in spot market and those of near-month futures are likely to be lower than the rates for forward contracts that. CIE's stated objective is to pay quarterly dividends that provide investors with an attractive and sustainable income stream that is franked to the maximum possible extent. A daily global picture of the physical bunker fuels market, providing you with the latest marine fuel prices for all major ports along with insight in Spot new opportunities and develop a more informed forward plan with access to over 100 independent dry freight rates for the world's most traded comm Get the most important developments in. The price of West Tezas Cruse is up about 12% today and USO is only up 4%. They hedge price exposure using exchange-traded contracts and over-the-counter instruments. What a trader means when they say that a market is in contango If you're seeing this message, it means we're having trouble loading external resources on our website. Corn is planted in the spring and harvested in the fall, and this growing season is when most of the. For some reason, the buyers (for example chocolate makers) have strong incentives to buy in this market to hedge their risk. The European Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2009 led to a number of new terms entering the financial lexicon, ranging from concepts like austerity to acronyms like PIIGS. Rollover points are usually determined by the open interest. A seasonal low at the start of the 2020 injection season when inventories begin to rise could turn out to be the perfect time to consider a long position in the commodity that has been beaten down. No symbols found that match the requirements. Term structure of the real interest rate 4. They use arbitrage to trade physical commodities without incurring price risk. The ATR is fairly simple to calculate and only needs historical price data. 50 in one year, made up of the £95 investment and coupon interest of £9. call money market. Oil prices have sold off sharply over the past month. Forwards versus futures prices. The European Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2009 led to a number of new terms entering the financial lexicon, ranging from concepts like austerity to acronyms like PIIGS. Hedging Against Falling Copper Prices using Copper Futures Copper producers can hedge against falling copper price by taking up a position in the copper futures market. Investment property in Houston, TX. Calculate the possible volume of your transaction, see what the swap is and how you can break even, analyse the best moment to enter the trade. USCF Contango-Killer Oil Fund (No K-1). backwardation than in contango • Spot and forward prices should be equally volatile when the market is at full carry because storage connects the prices • Spot prices should be more volatile than forward prices when the market is in backwardation because there is more flexibility to adjust quantity over a longer period of time, and. Contango for a specific spread can be displayed in the Spreads tab in the application, and then we can compare it with the historical - stacked seasonality chart. In general, market structure is contango when near-term futures. This three-day course examines trading economics in depth. 59, which is $2 higher than yesterday. com you can see. we can now calculate the annualized percentage. Houston TX, 77002. Measuring the idiosyncratic volatility of 27 commodity futures contracts with traditional pricing models that fail to account for backwardation and contango leads to the puzzling finding that. The effect on indexes has been so pronounced that many firms have started designing portfolios explicitly to maximize positive roll yield or minimize the contango headwind. run: python Calculate_VIX_RollDown. If contango and -(time spread) > marginal storage cost: Long 1st month, short 2nd month Hold both futures contracts till expiry After expiry 1st month: collect and store product After expiry 2nd month: deliver product Profit = -(time spread) - storage costs Storage costs: • Transportation costs (transport product to tank terminal). Term structure of the real interest rate 4. If you're behind a web filter, please make sure that the domains *. 10 illustrates the price patterns for futures under different scenarios. But shorting DNO and paying 5% interest seems too much. This home boasts a spacious open floorplan perfect for entertaining indoor and out. Contango Oil & Gas Co's Days Inventory for the three months ended in Dec. Only way to bank contango is to buy spot and sell forward, which involves taking delivery and waiting-out the time to deliver against the short forward/futures. Each LME tradeable contract is likewise governed by rules covering (but not limited to) prompt dates, settlement terms, traded and cleared currencies and minimum tick size. How does Amazon calculate star ratings? Amazon calculates a product’s star ratings using a machine learned model instead of a raw data average. 1 and rule 7. com is a website owned and operated by EnergyFunders, LLC. Neste reference margin Pricing basis at Porvoo and Naantali refineries Feed structure comparable to Neste Product yields comparable to Neste Similar cost structure vs. Given the current super contango of the WTI curve, we calculate this month’s roll at a wide ($8/bbl) or an $8/bbl deduct from the realized price, which would be the largest adjustment dating. This is normal for most markets because back months include carrying costs (interest, storage, etc). moneyweekvideos. Let’s go from one extreme to the other to clarify. On 4/20, when May WTI crude oil futures settled at negative $37. Contango × A condition when the front month prices are lower than the back month prices. This chart is available in durations of 3 months, 3 years and from 1996 to today. • The convenience yield is an implied return on inventories • Holding inventories allows for: - reducing the costs and delay of furniture - being able to answer to unexpected demand rises - insure the continuity of exploitation • There are a lot of debates on convenience yield - Does it really exist or is it an ad-hoc theoretical. In the Contango market, the calendar spread and basis are negative. When bonds are issued, they are issued with a stated interest rate or coupon that reflects the prevailing interest rate environment at the time. Search for COI in Online Dictionary Encyclopedia. If you want to understand more. Better do it with options. call protection. calendar year deductible. Financial exposure is the amount of capital that you stand to lose. ©2020 PSA 2018-7701. Investment property in Houston, TX. Options Calculator. The default settings are specifically for Bitmex XBTU19 and XBTZ19 futures contracts. Contango refers to a situation where the future spot price is below the current price , and. With a continuously compounded annual risk-free rate of 2%, we can again calculate the lease rate according to the formula: 0, 0 1 ln T l F r TS ⎛⎞ δ= − ⎜⎟ ⎝⎠. From these numbers we can calculate the interest rate in year two. Lo scopo di questo articolo è quello di presentare i concetti basilari relativi al CRC (acronimo di Cyclic Redundancy Check), un modo efficiente ed ampiamente utilizzato per proteggere le informazioni da corruzioni di tipo accidentale. For example, if it is currently January 2012 and the price of a Sept12 gold future is $1800 but the expected price of gold in September 2012 is only $1700, there is contango. April 17 Contango & VLCC Spot Rates Today oil contango 1 year out (Spot vs. Easter falls on the first Sunday following the Paschal Full Moon, the full moon on or after 21 March, taken to be the date of the vernal equinox. If you don’t want to put in any effort, you are better off leaving your money in the bank. The Holdings Calculator permits you to calculate the current value of your gold and silver. the prices of exercise 6. Si esaminerà la serie di microcontrollori PIC18Fxx31 della Microchip che fornisce tutti gli strumenti (PCPWM, Quadrature Encoder, ADC ad elevata velocità) per sviluppare applicazioni in tal senso con un time-to-market drasticamente. For the S&P 500: 1) cash = yesterday's closing cash value on the SPX 2. Contango refers to a situation where the future spot price is below the current price, and people are willing to pay more for a commodity at some point in the future than the actual expected price of the commodity. Discuss the importance of roll returns in explaining the long-run cross-sectional variation of commodity futures returns and the implication for investors. Glassdoor gives you an inside look at what it's like to work at Contango IT, including salaries, reviews, office photos, and more. This lesson defines roll yield and other key concepts of futures contracts needed to fully understand the calculation including backwardation and contango. Login or register to view LME Aluminium prices and monthly averages. iShares ® Dow Jones-UBS Roll Select Commodity Index Trust The iShares ® Dow Jones-UBS Roll Select Commodity Index Trust (the “Trust”) is a Delaware statutory trust that issues units of beneficial interest (the “Shares”) representing fractional undivided beneficial interests in its net assets. call processing. 03% away from the 50-day MA while located -2. Why is this potentially misleading? The problem with this calculation though is there's only 1 day left until the front month VIX future expires. If the difference is positive, then it is contango. S Treasury bond (T-bond). j calculate pre-­money valuation, post-­money valuation, ownership fraction, and price per share applying the venture capital method 1) with single and multiple financing rounds and 2) in terms of IRR; k demonstrate alternative methods to account for risk in venture capital. For the S&P 500: 1) cash = yesterday's closing cash value on the SPX 2. Contango, Backwardation, and VXX There seems to be a widespread need for a definition of contango. When you hear someone talk about “the yield curve”, they usually mean the spot yield curve (and, more specifically, the spot yield curve for risk-free bonds (e. com/what-are-contango-and-backwardation/ no. It adds to Tony Cooper's startegy by adding a couple of buy and sell rules. is an independent oil and natural gas company, which engages in the exploration, development, production, and acquisition of crude oil and natural gas properties. Contango and backwardation are terms used to define the structure of the forward curve. Five key advantages to our business model include: portfolio diversification, no-cost exploration upside, geopolitical stability, fixed-cost investments, and inherent growth. If the market drops and the VIX Futures Curve gets reset higher, the Contango is of lower importance now as what was formerly shorted VX2 at 15 (for example) inside the SVXY, now has to be covered as VX1 at 17 for a loss. Seek to capitalize on upward and downward market moves. paradigm shift to a net energy exporter in 2020 turns the world's largest economy into a weight on broad commodities, in our view. Contango Oil and Gas Co MCF financial information, fundamentals, key ratios, market capitalization, shares outstanding, float, and short interest. This means that access to information about what things are selling for is very limited. Contango is the appointed Investment Advisor and fund. Solution for a) Find the PP and NPV of the following projects. If contango and -(time spread) > marginal storage cost: Long 1st month, short 2nd month Hold both futures contracts till expiry After expiry 1st month: collect and store product After expiry 2nd month: deliver product Profit = -(time spread) – storage costs Storage costs: • Transportation costs (transport product to tank terminal). It is very much dependent on the price movements of the underlying asset, but it does put a bias on the price. Cboe Global Markets. Oil is in contango at the moment and therefore the price here is significantly higher than the spot price. This is an updated script of. Commodity trading firms are all essentially in the business. 24 per ounce per year payable quarterly in advance. Is there any unit of measure for the magnitude of the contango (or backwardation) for futures, so you can compare the contango of many symbols. This difference can be expressed as a percentage (for x number of days: time to expiration of the futures contract) and then annualised to calculate an annual contango or backwardation rate, representing an implied yield for the specific maturity. Hello, I'm trying to write an indicator plotting percent contango between spot VIX -- last closing VIX price -- and the near month /VX future. My bet is that the prices will be higher in 12 months, so what would be the best option to make a trade on this position?. Back in Pricing of futures, we discussed about the theoretical pricing of futures. The first inescapable reality is that the portion of our account at risk affects our returns. A market where the futures contract is trading at a premium is referred to as a Contango market. NET framework. Start studying 444 Midterm 1. Contango = Spot price < Future Price = positive sloping. backwardation than in contango • Spot and forward prices should be equally volatile when the market is at full carry because storage connects the prices • Spot prices should be more volatile than forward prices when the market is in backwardation because there is more flexibility to adjust quantity over a longer period of time, and. We have two main problems to overcome; Which contract to base our time series analysis on and how to link contracts together. HORNING, B. ALUMINIUM: The irresistible rise of the LME contango There is now a sense that aluminium premiums are falling, and that the contango on the light metal's forward curve has been tamed. This morning (Sunday) I got a request from Eric Thompson at Thompson Capital Management to look into streaks of backwardation in VIX. *We will calculate the VixRSI14 indicator (see code at end of article) on a weekly basis *A “buy alert” occurs when VixRSI14 drops below 3. Speed up indicator and EA calculations Platform Tech. for example, 10% Trend is roughly equal to a 19-period EMA, 1% Trend to 200EMA etc. A seasonal low at the start of the 2020 injection season when inventories begin to rise could turn out to be the perfect time to consider a long position in the commodity that has been beaten down. equities and benefits from one of the most liquid markets in the world, using S&P 500 options ensures that VIX represents a broad—and current—view on volatility. A simple script to quickly check CME & ICE futures contango & backwardation. The most important financial decision you make may have nothing to do with money. The gamma of an option indicates how an option's delta is expected to change when the stock price changes. – How BTU Content and GPM Determine NGL Quantities (Part II) you must be logged as a RBN Backstage Pass™ subscriber. Kraken Oil & Gas is a private equity-backed exploration and production company formed in 2012 to focus on drilling and development opportunities in the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota, primarily in the prolific Bakken formation. Cost of living wizard. Performance returns, including 1-month Return/Return Since Inception/1-year returns indicates the performance of this particular motif over that stated period of time as of the date provided. 86% contango, so the roll yield is a little steep. Stack Exchange Network Stack Exchange network consists of 175 Q&A communities including Stack Overflow , the largest, most trusted online community for developers to learn, share their knowledge, and. This chart is available in durations of 3 months, 3 years and from 1996 to today. In a contango situation, arbitrageurs or speculators, are "willing to pay more [now] for a commodity [to be received] at some point in the future than the actual expected. You can also see the current options trading volume for each individual option by looking at the option chain table above. While the 1-month contango structure of about 30 cents per barrel would be insufficient to offset the total cost of chartering the supertanker, it does partly cover the expenses. 65 Brent was down 76 cents, or 1. In the example above, buying $1 worth of assets for just $0. Average price options (where. Contrary to popular belief, the typical seller of a gold contract is not betting on a falling gold price. It manages. Demand Destruction Likely To Be Led By China. I figure that about 99% of investors have no idea of what contango or backwardation are. Since then, the 3-month contango has ballooned to a whopping $7. The VIX is one of the most closely watched barometers for market sentiment. Contango Income Generator Limited (ASX:CIE) is an income-focused, ex-top 20 listed investment company. Duration 3. If the VIX Index is below the near-term VIX futures, the contracts will lose value over time, leading to losses in VXX. Lo scopo di questo articolo è quello di presentare i concetti basilari relativi al CRC (acronimo di Cyclic Redundancy Check), un modo efficiente ed ampiamente utilizzato per proteggere le informazioni da corruzioni di tipo accidentale. Obviously, prices change daily, but if the difference between June and July prices remains this high – contango will wipe out another large chunk of contracts. The mineral futures markets are also dominated by both backwardation and contango. The FPY for process C is (75-10)/80 = 65/80 =. HOUSTON, March 21, 2019 -- Contango Oil & Gas Company (NYSE American: MCF) (“Contango” or the “Company”) announced today that it is re-issuing its previous release that. Contango Versus Normal Backwardation The red line in Figure 1, on the other hand, depicts an inverted market. For instance, if oil per barrel costs about $ 70 today, you calculate the expense incurred in storage-about $20 per barrel. The phrase that was used by futures traders in the old days (and probably still today) was "the contango is limited by the carrying cost, there is no limit to the backwardation". 70X ($ millions) $79. Get an introduction to Steel futures contracts, including the types of contracts offered at CME Group, trading details and more. 9 percent, or 10. But shorting DNO and paying 5% interest seems too much. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. A short rate cap may also be viewed as an average rate option where the averaging period is the last instant before the contract expires. There’s a simple reason why contango is normal in the gold market. For many equity index. Contango Income Generator Limited (ASX:CIE) is an income-focused, ex-top 20 listed investment company. gains should be the XIV gain for the day AFTER the first contango value. In commodity markets, the same is true when a far month. 2 million in 2019, which was below expectations due to dry bulk market weakness late in the year. We're part of your community, your next door neighbor, with more than 140 years of history behind every transaction and community investment. To Execute. calculated intangible value (CIV) calculated risk. Like this MoneyWeek Video? Want to find out more on contango and backwardation? Go to: http://www. Victoria College FROM THE LIBRARY OF L. Default values are 0% or less (backwardation) indicates green. The "official" D/R All-Seasons Portfolio is mediocre at best, hence the reason for this thread. Contango can be interpreted in the way that the market expects the VIX index to increase from its current level going forward. If, moving out in time, successive futures prices are higher, the price curve is said to be in "contango". For Sale Price: $210000 | 1 bed, 1 bath, Condo/Coop. the prices of exercise 6. I am a self proclaimed expert on Bausch and Lomb aka Vintage Ray Bans. The reason why this additional contango-driven drag on VXX returns is relevant here, is that the main assumption of the strategy breaks down when we use the VIX as a proxy for implied vol. Get instant access to a free live streaming chart of the BetaPro Crude Oil 2x Daily Bull ETF. How about you check how they state they calculate oil price? Its the combination of the current and next futures prices. Description. Contango Oil & Gas Company is a Houston, Texas based, independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, exploitation and production of crude oil and natural gas offshore in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico and in the onshore Texas and Rocky Mountain regions of the United States. However, we do give a bit of weight to Contango # as that influences the daily rebalancing of the ETF last_ratio =. Now the May-June spread is a mere $. The proposed time, man-hour and cost data are referred to as the “baseline" data. If the change in the factor is "good", then we add one to the score. Options Calculator. Follow the VIX term structure graphically in real time. Rollover Points. The opposite of Backwardation. DEFINITION OF ‘CONTANGO’ A situation where the futures price of a commodity is above the expected future spot price. 86% contango, so the roll yield is a little steep. The mega contango is partly due to traders rushing to sell the May contract ahead of its expiration on Tuesday, as the physically traded commodity converged with the financial pricing. Under normal market conditions, when supplies are adequate, the price of a commod-ity for future delivery should be equal to the present spot price plus carrying charges. On Tuesday the benchmark was in contango for as much as $0. Same goes for normal backwardation. Adjusting for IFRS 16 adoption, we calculate that adjusted EBITDA was $24. 360翻译支持中英深度互译,提供生词释义、权威词典、双语例句等优质英语学习资源,360nmt(神经网络机器翻译)智能加持,更熟悉国人表达习惯!. 15 Break 11. (Note that June-July is trading at at $7. > Couple of quick comments. Harness it to seek diversification, hedge or capitalize on volatility or efficiently generate income. Arbitrage: Part II In part I of this arbitrage series we defined arbitrage as the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset to profit from a difference in the price. LME Copper Contract specifications. VTS Community, For all us volatility traders, checking the VIX futures term structure is something we all do several times a day. We’re in. Measuring the idiosyncratic volatility of 27 commodity futures contracts with traditional pricing models that fail to account for backwardation and contango leads to the puzzling finding that. 83 contango. Calculating level of contango / backwardation 01-10-2013, 11:58 PM. Currently, active crude oil (USL) futures are trading at a discount of $1. 07, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Contango Oil & Gas Company (NYSE American: MCF) (“Contango,” the “Company,” “we” or “us”) announced today its financial results for the. A contango market simply means that the futures contracts are trading at a premium to the spot price. Note: for the 6DTE series, the IV would be 18. The primary business activity of the company is Gold And Silver Ores (SIC code 104). To see why backwardation and contango are important, look at the chart below, showing the spread between the current near month crude oil contract and the one that is 11 months out. Thank you in advance. Natural rubber declines on muted demand and low global prices. In the case of ETFs like the United States Oil Fund (USO) here is. These free Khan Academy courses gives you free access to learning materials from Khan Academy. calendar spread. Houston TX, 77002. Conversely, a market where the futures contract is trading at a discount is referred to as a Backwardation market. The pivot point and associated support and resistance levels are calculated by using the last trading session's open, high, low, and close. Pricing Futures and Forwards by Peter Ritchken 2 Peter Ritchken Forwards and Futures Prices 3 Forward Curves n Forward Prices are linked to Current Spot prices. The following table summarizes Contango’s total proved reserves as of December 31, 2015 (1):. ALUMINIUM: The irresistible rise of the LME contango There is now a sense that aluminium premiums are falling, and that the contango on the light metal's forward curve has been tamed. 75 a barrel by 2:28 p. There are two types of exposure: financial exposure and market exposure. However, interpreting the VIX and being able to capitalize on its movement is something that many traders struggle with. See the extent of the contango or backwardation. As time passes, VIX futures contracts slowly converge towards the VIX Index. View 16262 Barbarossa Drive, Houston, TX real estate investment calculator for traditional & Airbnb rental properties. If backwardation and contango did not exist the VXX price would be exclusively determined by that 30 day future (since both the 1st and 2nd month would be the same). Treasury spot curve)), but there are occasions when they might mean the par yield curve or the forward yield curve. call protection. A forward curve is said to be in contango (contango in gold) when futures (for instance gold futures) are traded at a premium over spot (for instance spot gold price). Contango Oil and Gas Co MCF financial information, fundamentals, key ratios, market capitalization, shares outstanding, float, and short interest. 76%, not 15. Cross Validated is a question and answer site for people interested in statistics, machine learning, data analysis, data mining, and data visualization. You can see how the price for March futures is higher than the January contract month, indicating that there is an increasing demand for soybeans and also. says: January 28, 2015 at 1:45 pm. Take advantage of the Miracle of Compound Interest and understand how to calculate investment return. The price of oil, or the oil price, generally refers to the spot price of a barrel of benchmark crude oil—a reference price for buyers and sellers of crude oil such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, OPEC Reference Basket, Tapis crude, Bonny Light, Urals oil, Isthmus and Western Canadian Select (WCS). To calculate the final score, the homework, Exam one, Exam two, and the Final will be weighted 30%, 20%, 20%, and 30%, respectively. Table 1: Source Contango MicroCap Limited In addition, an LIC trading at a discount provides the same upside a geared portfolio can. On day 1, the market is clearly in contango, as the forward curve is upward sloped. gains should be the XIV gain for the day AFTER the first contango value. 00 after first rising to 3. • The depth of contango overall and the allied instability of term structure became widely problematic for many market participants • Collectively, these factors led to WTI decoupling from other U. The company was founded in 1999 by Chairman Kenneth Peak and has compiled an remarkable track record over the past thirteen years. j calculate pre-­money valuation, post-­money valuation, ownership fraction, and price per share applying the venture capital method 1) with single and multiple financing rounds and 2) in terms of IRR; k demonstrate alternative methods to account for risk in venture capital. We offer them Gold Financing, Simplified ™. Roll Yield - Introduction Roll Yield is one of the most overlooked aspect of futures trading and is one of those things futures traders start looking into only after having traded futures for a significant period of time. 30 Spreads and Backwardation/Contango – What are spreads and how are they calculated – Why do traders use spreads – Market structure – Contango/Backwardation 12. Explain how a currency swap can be used to transform an asset or liability and calculate the resulting cash flows. Please select from the links below for VIX historical data: VIX data for 2004 to present (Updated Daily) * VIX data for 1990 - 2003 *. They search the Internet for news stories about diners getting food poisoning at a restaurant, for instance, and look for ways to cash in on. You can set a value of extreme Contango which will give an alert as red background (default setting is +$500). Adjusting for IFRS 16 adoption, we calculate that adjusted EBITDA was $24. Of those, you are able to lend out 8,000 ounces easily. Today we complete a two-part series on contango-spread trades with a look at floating storage. 0 Share purchases that offset option dilu tion are not a return on capital Calculation of Return on Capital Since Inception. OIlGraM PrICe rePOrt www. whether long VIX option positions can be used to exploit the well-documented tendencies of VIX futures to rise and fall when the VIX futures curve is in backwardation and in contango, respectively, as well as the tendency of VIX futures to build in large ex-ante volatility premiums. Investors mustn't confuse risky esoteric ETFs with mainstream. For example, if the price of a WTI crude oil contract today is $60 per barrel but the delivery price in six. Many times, contango will occur in a market where the price of the asset is high and volatile (for example, the oil market in the late 2000s). In most physical markets, the crucial determinant of the price differential between two contract months is the cost of storing the commodity over that particular length of time. Project B that costs $500 million is…. Calculate_VIX_RollDown. So maybe right now, oil is trading at $50 a barrel. I wrote a full ar. We're part of your community, your next door neighbor, with more than 140 years of history behind every transaction and community investment. 90 per bushel in the physical market. Since 2005, there have only been four periods where the roll yield was wider than 1% - during the financial crisis, when the U. Commodity Period Derivative Volume/Month Price/Unit: Natural Gas Jan 2019 - March 2019 Swap 600,000 MMBtus $ 3. When y=c, there is no arbitrage and hence the arb is zero. How does Amazon calculate star ratings? Amazon calculates a product’s star ratings using a machine learned model instead of a raw data average. But the futures price (or more technically correct, the forward price) of gold is calculated differently. HOUSTON, March 18, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Contango Oil & Gas Company (NYSE American:MCF) ("Contango" or the "Company") announced today its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended. 59, which is $2 higher than yesterday. Question 6. Can investors and traders expect to see a per-share price increase as the contango has widened and land-based storage fills? Based on the company's fleet, is Frontline properly positioned to take advantage of this. At first glance the contango looks very steep: from 45 to 80 $! But these prices are expressed in dollars of the delivery date. Full text of " A dictionary of slang and colloquial English " See other formats. Message board - Online Community of active, educated investors researching and discussing Frontline Ltd. 10/b contango, at plus $3. 00: Natural Gas Nov 2017 - Dec 2017. There's going to. If the market drops and the VIX Futures Curve gets reset higher, the Contango is of lower importance now as what was formerly shorted VX2 at 15 (for example) inside the SVXY, now has to be covered as VX1 at 17 for a loss. Futures Data Adjustments Futures are unlike cash instruments such as equities in that they have a limited life span and therefore we lack proper long term data to analyze. M1:M2 VIX futures contango levels are a popular metric volatility traders pay attention to. Under "normal" market conditions, the VIX Index is typically below the near-term VIX futures contracts (a state of "contango"). Gossip: Man Utd shy away from Sancho, Newcastle eye £70m defender. As a result, markets which compensate an individual fully for carry charges -. On Tuesday the benchmark was in contango for as much as $0. The company was founded in 1999 by Chairman Kenneth Peak and has compiled an remarkable track record over the past thirteen years. It doesn't fully escape the contango issue, but it doesn't get utterly slaughtered by it like USO does. Examples include interest on long positions in margin account, dividend lost on short. In a situation in which the spot or cash price of a commodity / stock is higher than the forward / future price is called Backwardation or Contango. Our popular Options Calculator provides fair values and Greeks of any option using previous trading day prices. engages in the provision of asset management services. 76%, not 15. , Melbourne, has plugged Marina-1 wildcat in the Tumbes basin offshore Peru after finding only minor gas shows. Once the scanners give me an alert, I then review the candlestick chart and try to get an entry on the first pull back. 60 per barrel, every commodity trader in the world’s perception of the word risk as they previously knew it was thrown out the window. Introduction to Trading and Oil Price Risk Management FULL PROGRAM DATES: LONDON: MARCH 25 - 29, 2019 NOVEMBER 11 - 15, 2019 Unit One examines physical trading economics in depth. The stock has a fifty day moving average of $2. call forwarding. 10/b contango, at plus $3. Full access to the RBN Energy blog archive which includes any posting more than 5 days old is available only to RBN Backstage Pass™ subscribers. Latest futures price quotes as of Tue, Feb 25th, 2020. Contango Have been programming for over 22 years (since I was at elementary school). The first inescapable reality is that the portion of our account at risk affects our returns. Contango alone, however, doesn’t tell the whole story with regards to the SVXY. Hedging Against Falling Copper Prices using Copper Futures Copper producers can hedge against falling copper price by taking up a position in the copper futures market. 80 units go into process C, 10 are reworked, and 75 leave as good parts. However, the crude oil futures forward curve inverted from contango to backwardation in late 2012. Contango and Tanker are still on, for a long while IMO : 2020 Oil Demand Expected to Drop 11 Percent Rystad Energy is forecasting that oil demand will decrease 10. Open Interest 458,735. info("v_v1 %f" %last_ratio_v. In either way, especially for commodities like gold, precious metals, things that aren't consumable, things that people don't need immediately for consumption, it's not unusual for a market to be in Contango. Solution for Rhea owns shares in Riko Corp. OIlGraM PrICe rePOrt www. The Piotroski F-Score, as it is known, is a 9-point discrete score, where 9 is the best, that ranks companies based on a number of financial factors. In the examples shown above, although crude oil prices have moved by only 10%, the ROI generated is 34. Technical Considerations Rite Aid Corporation (RAD) stock positioned 23. Consider an example where the cash price for corn is $3. If, moving out in time, successive futures prices are higher, the price curve is said to be in "contango". This method has become the most widely used because food and energy prices can be very volatile, and this wide amount of. 5 million, or $3. Risk Disclosure. The table below uses data on ETF holdings and degree of contango/backwardation in the Futures market to calculate gains or losses due to rollover. Let’s analyse this in best scientific way possible There are two variables for our consider. Contrary to popular belief, the typical seller of a gold contract is not betting on a falling gold price. calendar spread. VIX futures provide market participants with a variety of opportunities to implement their view using volatility trading strategies, including risk management, alpha generation and portfolio diversification. The weighted average equivalent sales price during the three months ended June 30, 2019 was $4. The issue of the Front-Side Bus (that term always amused me). Because the futures price must converge on the expected future spot price, contango implies futures prices are falling over time as new information brings them into line with the expected future spot price. Good Friday is the Friday before Easter, which is calculated differently in Eastern Christianity and Western Christianity (see Computus for details). Historical VIX Contango-Backwardation Data: This item downloads percent F1-F2, F4-F7 and F1 roll yield data and store it under the following ticker symbols: ^VIXF1F2: VIX futures Month 2 to Month 1 contango. The "official" D/R All-Seasons Portfolio is mediocre at best, hence the reason for this thread. “You normally see a contango [floating storage] market in the large crude oil tankers, but the contango market is alive and well in products in a giant way, even on smaller 50,000-tonner MRs [medium-range product tankers]. For example, the first row should have the XIV and SPXU gains for the day AFTER the first contango value. In the event of a prolonged period of contango, and absent the impact of rising or falling oil prices, this could have a significant negative impact on USOF's NAV and total return. The Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Index (BCOMRS or “Roll Select”) is a dynamic version of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (“BCOM”) that aims to mitigate the effects of contango market structure on index performance. Speculative buying from hedge funds and other traders has probably anticipated and accelerated the shift from contango to backwardation in Brent since the summer. and International markets. HOUSTON, Nov. Oil is in contango at the moment and therefore the price here is significantly higher than the spot price. For example, if the price of a crude oil contract today is $100 per barrel, but the price for delivery in six months is $110 per barrel, that market would be in contango. The oil market flipped into contango in January, indicating an oversupply of the commodity. 80 units go into process C, 10 are reworked, and 75 leave as good parts. 35 (about 35 percent). Because the index represents approximately 80% of the total market value of U. Measuring the idiosyncratic volatility of 27 commodity futures contracts with traditional pricing models that fail to account for backwardation and contango leads to the puzzling finding that. They use average ranges to calculate the points of the Candle, which smooths out the chart and in turn provides a clearer view of the trend of the market. I run a web hosting business with my brother. We’re in. We will be updating our newsfeed to keep you up to date about our most recent activities. May 2021 future) is a massive $17. Empirical studies indicate that the joint dynamics of spot and futures prices is regime dependent. The contango in the futures curve is no different to the real storage and financing costs you would face if you were theoretically able to buy physical oil and store it. What are contango and backwardation? Names for the curve structures mapping traders' guesses about what a given contract will be worth in the future. But the futures price (or more technically correct, the forward price) of gold is calculated differently. ETF Performance Year-to-Date. Contango and normal backwardation are influenced by differences in the futures price and the spot price for a given commodity — a difference known as the "basis. A Detailed Analysis of VXX’s Cost of Contango A few years ago I developed a consolidated spreadsheet to organize historic VIX futures data from the CBOE into a single spreadsheet. In the interim, one needs to charter a vessel to hold the crude, so presumably this will lead to an increase in demand (and therefore increase in price, ceteris paribus) for tankers.
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